Ukrainian drones hit Perm, Novoshakhtinsk Russian refineries again
Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-09-25T10:31:40.418Z
Summary
Ukraine conducted fresh long-range drone strikes on Russia’s Perm and Novoshakhtinsk refineries, with multiple fires including at Perm’s AVT-5 crude distillation unit, which handles roughly a third of the plant’s primary throughput. The renewed campaign against deep Russian refining assets tightens medium‑term Russian product export capacity, supporting refined product cracks and a risk premium in crude.
Details
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What happened: Reports indicate Ukrainian Liutyi drones struck Russia’s Perm oil refinery this morning, causing at least three fires, one at the AVT‑5 crude distillation unit that accounts for about 34% of the refinery’s primary processing capacity. Zelensky subsequently confirmed overnight strikes on both Perm and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, along with the Iskra defense plant and radar stations in Rostov. This continues a pattern of deep‑reach attacks on Russian refining infrastructure over recent months.
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Supply/demand impact: Perm is one of the larger refineries in the Urals region; damage to a main crude unit can curtail throughput materially if outages last beyond days. Novoshakhtinsk primarily serves domestic and regional markets near the Black Sea and has previously exported products. Even if each site loses 50–150 kb/d for several weeks, the direct crude demand reduction is modest relative to global balances, but the bigger effect is on Russian diesel and other product exports into Europe, Africa, and LatAm via intermediaries. After cumulative attacks since early 2024, Russian product exports have already shown intermittent disruptions; another hit raises the probability of sustained 100–300 kb/d of product export constraints in Q4 if repairs are protracted or follow‑on strikes occur.
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Market impact and direction: The immediate reaction is likely firmer European diesel/gasoil cracks and strength in front‑month ICE gasoil and fuel oil, with a supportive bias for Brent/Urals differentials and time spreads as traders price in higher refinery outage risk in Russia. Russian domestic fuel prices and export tax dynamics may prompt further informal export curbs, indirectly tightening global product supply. Brent and WTI could see a 1–2% upside move on risk premium rather than pure balance tightening, while European middle distillate cracks are at greatest risk of an outsized move.
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Historical precedent: Previous Ukrainian drone strikes on Rosneft and other Russian refineries in 2024 generated short‑lived but notable rallies in European diesel cracks and widened Urals discounts. The pattern has been recurring rather than one‑off, slowly eroding confidence in Russian downstream reliability.
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Duration: Physical impacts from these specific strikes are likely weeks to a couple of months, but the structural effect is a higher ongoing risk premium on Russian refining and product exports. Expect transient price spikes on confirmation of severity, with a persistent volatility and crack‑spread premium if follow‑up attacks continue.
AFFECTED ASSETS: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, ICE Gasoil futures, European diesel cracks, Urals crude differentials, Russian refined product exports (diesel, fuel oil)
Sources
- OSINT