US Treasury’s Bessent Warns of 25% Iran Slump, Fuel Shortages and Urges Iranians to Withhold Taxes
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told an Iranian opposition channel he expects Iran’s economy to shrink by more than 25% between March 2026 and March 2027, warned of looming fuel shortages and urged Iranians to stockpile fuel and stop paying taxes, while offering sanctions relief to officials who cooperate with Washington.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has laid out a bleak forecast for Iran’s economy and coupled it with an unusual appeal directly to Iranian citizens.
In an interview with an Iranian opposition channel, Bessent said he predicts Iran’s economy will contract by more than 25% between March 2026 and March 2027. He compared that to the downturn suffered by the Soviet Union after its collapse and argued that Iran’s stagnation over the past 47 years stems from choices made by the current regime. He noted that four decades ago Iran’s economy was larger than Turkey’s, whereas today Turkey’s output is roughly three and a half to four times bigger.
Bessent said he believes Iran’s leadership is hiding the true value of the rial, estimating that the real rate has passed three million rials to the dollar and claiming that officials have stopped printing the actual price. He described many commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as “like rats in a sewer pipe,” saying they are in hiding in deep, dark locations and cut off from what ordinary Iranians face. He also portrayed the Ayatollah as very isolated and insisted that many senior leaders do not understand what is happening to the population.
His advice to people inside Iran was direct. Bessent said Iranians should start stocking up on heating fuel because he expects a severe shortage. He urged them to fill up their car fuel tanks while supplies are available and said, “anything you need for the winter, you should go and get now.” He also told viewers not to pay their taxes, arguing they are “not going to get anything back from the government.”
Bessent combined those warnings with an offer aimed at Iranian officials. He said the US is willing to unsanction individuals who work with Washington and that the goal is to bring the regime to the negotiating table. He suggested that insiders who cooperate could claim 30% of assets they currently hold for the state.
He also questioned why Iran’s leaders believe they need a nuclear weapon and argued that if they declared they did not want one, “the world would embrace the Iranians.”
For families in Iran, Bessent’s forecast of a contraction of more than 25% and fuel shortages points to higher prices, supply disruptions and pressure on basic living standards. For Tehran’s leadership, the interview signals that Washington intends to lean harder on economic levers while trying to widen the gap between the state and its citizens.
Developments to watch include Tehran’s official response, any new US sanctions measures, and signs inside Iran of changes in fuel buying, exchange‑rate movements or organized resistance to tax payments. How far individuals act on Bessent’s advice will offer an early indication of whether his message resonates or is dismissed as outside interference.
Sources
- OSINT