Sudan and Myanmar Conflicts Show How Cheap Drones Are Driving Up Civilian Risk
A report of at least 306 people killed by drone strikes in Sudan over three weeks and confirmed Myanmar army drone attacks on Arakan Army rebels in Bago and Magway highlight how unmanned systems are reshaping internal wars on two continents.
From Sudan’s cities to Myanmar’s contested regions, drones are tightening their hold on internal conflicts and putting civilians in greater danger.
In Sudan, at least 306 people died in drone strikes in just three weeks, according to a report published on 23 October by allAfrica. The figure, drawn from reporting inside the country, reflects rising use of unmanned systems in the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. The report doesn’t assign responsibility for each strike but places the deaths within the nationwide struggle that began in April 2023.
In Myanmar, the national army has carried out drone strikes on Arakan Army rebels in Bago and Magway Regions in October, according to local conflict monitoring. The Arakan Army is one of the country’s more capable ethnic armed groups and has been fighting the junta on several fronts.
For people on the ground in Sudan, drones mean explosions can come without the telltale sounds of advancing ground forces or visible aircraft. Markets, streets or shelters can be hit with little or no warning. In Myanmar’s rural and jungle areas, villagers already under pressure from surveillance and checkpoints now have to factor in small quadcopters or larger drones overhead that may be directing fire or delivering munitions.
State militaries and non‑state forces are attracted to drones for similar reasons: they can be relatively cheap, often adapted from commercial designs, and allow operators to strike targets while staying out of immediate harm’s way. In Sudan, that offers a way for both the army and the Rapid Support Forces to hit rival positions in dense urban spaces without sending in large ground units. In Myanmar, drones extend the army’s reach into areas where roads are unsafe or impassable.
The strategic consequences vary but follow a pattern. In Sudan, growing reliance on drones deepens the cycle of attack and counterattack and complicates attempts to negotiate ceasefires. New airstrikes drive more people toward borders with Chad, South Sudan, Egypt and other neighbors already struggling to absorb refugees. In Myanmar, drone attacks on the Arakan Army and other groups can slow rebel advances in certain locations while hardening attitudes in communities on the receiving end.
International humanitarian law treats unlawful attacks on civilians as violations regardless of whether the weapon is a drone, artillery shell or manned aircraft. The practical challenge is that when attacks are launched by operators far from the impact point, oversight and accountability can be harder to enforce.
Indicators to watch include signs that outside actors are providing drone technology or training to any of the factions in Sudan or Myanmar, shifts in casualty data that suggest more precise or more indiscriminate strikes, and whether future ceasefire proposals in either conflict include obligations or monitoring mechanisms specific to drone use.
Sources
- OSINT