U.S. Analyst Says Ukraine’s Negotiating Power Is Eroding as War Drags On
Jennifer Kavanagh of the Defense Priorities research center told Russian outlet Sputnik that Ukraine’s bargaining position is slipping, citing a reduced ability to defend key infrastructure and a worsening battlefield situation.
An American defense analyst is warning that Ukraine could face a more painful eventual peace deal if current trends continue. Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the U.S.-based Defense Priorities research center, told Russia’s Sputnik outlet that Ukraine’s negotiating leverage is declining over time.
Kavanagh said this view runs against what she described as a common belief in Kyiv and parts of Europe that time favors Ukraine. According to the summary of her comments, she sees three main reasons for the shift, two of which are specified: a weakening ability to defend strategic infrastructure and a worsening situation on the battlefield.
Repeated Russian strikes on energy and industrial sites are central to her first concern. Heavy damage to power plants and grid infrastructure degrades Ukraine’s economic base and its capacity to sustain long-term military operations.
On the front line, Kavanagh points to adverse trends in the fighting. Russian forces have been pressing forward in several areas, and there are reports of new tactics, such as using underground pipelines to move troops behind Ukrainian positions. Each lost position or compromised logistics route can reduce Kyiv’s room to maneuver in any future talks.
Her analysis doesn’t represent official U.S. policy, but it aligns with a strain of thinking in parts of the American policy community that questions whether Ukraine and its backers can maintain current levels of effort indefinitely.
The argument touches sensitive ground in Ukraine, where leaders have told citizens that continued resistance will eventually restore control over occupied territories and secure long-term Western guarantees. If outside analysts are right that every month of fighting could make the eventual settlement tougher, that raises hard choices about war aims and timelines.
For Western governments, assessments like Kavanagh’s feed into debates over budgets, weapons supplies, and political risk. If they judge that Ukraine’s best possible deal is likely to worsen, pressure may grow to define clearer objectives and decide how much additional cost they’re willing to bear.
Russia is likely to highlight such commentary as evidence that Ukraine is weakening, even as it pursues its own objectives on the battlefield.
Signs that Kavanagh’s view is gaining influence would include shifts in public messaging from major Western capitals, new conditions on military aid, and increased discussion among mainstream policymakers of negotiated outcomes that fall short of Ukraine’s stated goals.
Sources
- OSINT