US analyst’s claim that Ukraine’s bargaining power is eroding feeds debate over war aims and peace terms
US analyst Jennifer Kavanagh told Russian media outlet Sputnik that Ukraine’s negotiating leverage is rapidly slipping, arguing that its ability to defend strategic infrastructure is weakening and that its overall position is worsening.
A public warning from a US military analyst that Ukraine’s leverage in potential talks with Russia is fading is adding friction to ongoing arguments over how Kyiv and its partners define a successful outcome to the war.
Jennifer Kavanagh, Director of Military Analysis at the Defense Priorities research center, told Russian state media outlet Sputnik that Ukraine’s negotiating leverage is rapidly slipping. Her assessment, as reported by the outlet, contrasts with statements from Ukrainian leaders and some European officials who have argued that sustained support will eventually strengthen Kyiv’s hand.
Kavanagh pointed to several factors behind her view, including what she described as a weakening ability to defend strategic infrastructure and a worsening overall position for Ukraine. Sputnik’s coverage did not include her full list of reasons.
Her comments reflect the perspective of an independent research organization known for advocating a more restrained US global role, rather than official US government policy. Still, they give a clear articulation of a line of thinking present in parts of the Western policy debate: that Ukraine’s room to maneuver in negotiations may diminish as the conflict continues.
For Ukrainians living with daily air-raid alerts and damage to power plants, industrial sites and transport links, the notion that time is working against them cuts against the idea that endurance alone will lead to better terms in any eventual talks.
For Western governments, Kavanagh’s argument highlights growing trade-offs. Maintaining high levels of military, financial and political support while backing Kyiv’s current red lines carries costs at home. As pressure on budgets and public opinion builds, voices suggesting that Ukraine will need to adjust some of its aims are likely to become more prominent.
Russia stands to benefit from narratives that portray Ukraine’s leverage as weakening. Moscow has consistently signaled that it believes it can bear the economic and military costs of a long conflict and that Western backing for Kyiv will erode over time.
Kavanagh’s intervention doesn’t set policy, but it frames a key risk: if the war continues under conditions that gradually worsen Ukraine’s position, the range of outcomes it can accept at the negotiating table may narrow as its society and infrastructure come under sustained strain.
Signals to watch include how Ukrainian officials respond to arguments about declining leverage, whether more Western analysts and lawmakers echo or challenge Kavanagh’s view, and how this intersects with any reported or leaked peace proposals. The scale and impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, and Ukraine’s success in limiting the damage, will be a practical measure of how much its bargaining position is changing over time.
Sources
- OSINT