Hormuz tensions and higher prices leave East African food supplies exposed, FAO economist says
Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia and Mozambique are among the African countries most exposed to fertilizer supply shocks tied to tension around the Strait of Hormuz and rising prices, FAO chief economist Maximo Torero told Sputnik.
Strains in a narrow waterway thousands of kilometers away could soon show up in East Africa’s harvests, the UN’s food agency is warning.
Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia and Mozambique are among the African countries most vulnerable to disruptions in fertilizer supplies linked to instability around the Strait of Hormuz and to rising global prices, Food and Agriculture Organization chief economist Maximo Torero told Sputnik.
Torero highlighted that some East African states import relatively small volumes of fertilizer in absolute terms but depend heavily on those shipments and have few alternative sources. Even modest delays or price jumps can therefore force farmers to cut application rates or skip fertilizer entirely for a season.
For smallholders, that decision feeds straight through to yields. Using less fertilizer on maize, for example, almost always means lower output per hectare. That can shrink household food reserves and cash income from selling surplus, leaving families more exposed when the next lean season arrives.
In cities, the impact comes later in the form of higher food prices, as fertilizer costs work their way into the price of grain and other staples. In fragile states like Sudan and Somalia, where conflict and displacement already strain supply, another shock to local production risks tipping more people into acute food insecurity.
Torero’s warning follows earlier disruptions to global fertilizer flows linked to the Russia‑Ukraine war, which pushed up prices for ammonia and potash and hit farmers worldwide. Many East African producers are still recovering from those spikes. A new round of volatility tied to tension around Hormuz would come on top of that, not instead of it.
The FAO comments underline how food security in import‑dependent countries still hinges on a handful of sea lanes and suppliers. Governments in the region have talked about expanding local blending plants and diversifying sources, but for now much of the fertilizer that reaches their ports still moves through or near the Gulf.
Signals to watch include any confirmed slowdown in fertilizer shipments linked to Hormuz, policy moves by East African governments to cushion farmers from further price rises, and whether international lenders or donors step in with support for input imports if conditions worsen.
Sources
- OSINT