Ethiopia and Eritrea Sever Ties as Federal Troops Push Toward Mekelle, Shattering 2022 Peace Deal
Ethiopian federal forces and allied militias say they are within 20 km of Mekelle after reversing a TPLF offensive, while Addis Ababa and Asmara have abruptly cut diplomatic relations. The collapse of the 2022 peace deal puts millions in Tigray back in the path of war and raises the risk of a wider regional conflict involving Eritrea.
War is closing in again on Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, and this time the political safety net that was supposed to prevent it has already been cut.
Ethiopian federal forces, backed by pro-government Tigrayan militias, are advancing toward Mekelle after rolling back a Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-led offensive that began in late September. Pro-government fighters claim they are now within about 20 kilometers of the city. Senior TPLF figures have reportedly left Mekelle, which TPLF sources describe not as a retreat but as a tactical pullback meant to preserve their forces.
The renewed fighting marks the collapse of a 2022 peace agreement that had paused a brutal conflict responsible for tens of thousands of deaths and severe humanitarian harm across northern Ethiopia. That deal was meant to disarm Tigrayan fighters and reincorporate the region into Ethiopia’s political and economic life, while easing tensions with neighboring Eritrea. Instead, the guns are again dictating the map.
As the front lines shift, civilians in and around Mekelle face a familiar pattern of danger. If federal forces and allied militias press into the city, urban blocks could turn into close-quarters battlefields. Supply routes that were only partly restored after the last war risk being severed, raising the threat of renewed shortages of food, fuel, and medicine. Families who returned to damaged homes in the past two years may again be forced to flee.
The diplomatic fallout adds another layer of uncertainty. Ethiopia announced it was closing its embassy in Asmara and ordering 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave within 48 hours, accusing them of activities that threatened its national security. Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic relations entirely. The rupture strips away what little formal communication existed between the two governments at exactly the moment coordination is most needed to prevent miscalculation along their shared border.
Eritrea played a controversial role in the previous phase of the Tigray war, sending troops into Ethiopian territory to fight alongside federal forces. Human rights organizations later documented serious abuses by Eritrean units. The current breakdown in relations, however, suggests a more fragmented alignment: pro-government Tigrayan militias are now part of the federal advance, and Eritrea is being treated as a security risk rather than a partner.
Regionally, the stakes extend beyond Mekelle. The Horn of Africa sits astride important trade routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and has already been rattled by wider tensions involving Yemen and Iran. Renewed large-scale conflict between Ethiopia and forces in Tigray, with Eritrea on edge, could trigger new refugee flows into Sudan, Djibouti, and beyond. It would also absorb diplomatic bandwidth at a time when international actors are already stretched by crises from Gaza to Ukraine.
The breakdown of the 2022 peace process sends a simple, bleak message: agreements that are not backed by durable political bargains and credible security arrangements can unravel quickly once any side believes the battlefield offers a better outcome. For communities in Tigray who had begun rebuilding, the return of armed convoys and artillery is a reminder that peace documents alone do not guarantee safety.
The next indicators to watch include whether federal forces halt outside Mekelle and push for a negotiated surrender, or move to storm the city; whether Eritrean troops mobilize near the border; and how aid agencies describe access to Tigray’s towns and rural areas in the coming days. Any sign of a communications blackout or broad blockade of roads into Mekelle would suggest preparations for a prolonged campaign rather than a quick show of force.
Sources
- OSINT