Published: · Region: Africa · Category: geopolitics

Ethiopian forces near Tigray capital Mekelle as Eritrea ties cut, raising risk of wider conflict

Residents and a diplomat cited by Reuters say Ethiopian government troops are closing in on Mekelle, the Tigray capital, just as Ethiopia and Eritrea sever diplomatic relations.

Ethiopian government forces were reported to be closing in on Mekelle, the capital of the northern region of Tigray, on Friday, according to residents and a diplomat cited by Reuters. The advance comes as Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea cut diplomatic ties, a combination that has raised fears of a broader conflict in the Horn of Africa.

Tigray has been the centre of repeated fighting between federal troops, allied regional forces, and Tigrayan fighters who previously held dominant positions in Ethiopian politics. Earlier offensives around Mekelle ended with ceasefires and political arrangements that left major disputes unresolved.

The latest reports that Ethiopian troops are near the city land at a moment when Addis Ababa and Asmara have severed diplomatic relations. Eritrean forces intervened in earlier stages of the Tigray conflict in support of Ethiopia’s federal government, and their role in border areas remains deeply contentious for many Tigrayans.

For civilians in and around Mekelle, the prospect of another federal push on the city raises the risk of renewed shelling, urban combat, and disrupted supplies. Residents have already endured displacement, hunger, and communications blackouts in previous rounds of fighting. Any new assault could further restrict humanitarian access into a region where basic services are still fragile.

The diplomatic break between Ethiopia and Eritrea removes a formal channel that had existed, however limited, between two governments with a history of war and uneasy peace. Analysts worry that if the fighting around Mekelle escalates, Eritrean involvement or moves by other neighbours could turn a mainly internal conflict into a wider regional crisis.

Inside Ethiopia, the advance toward Mekelle highlights the domestic political stakes. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has pursued military campaigns in Tigray and other regions while presenting a reform agenda. Renewed pressure on the Tigrayan capital signals that his government is currently leaning on battlefield gains rather than a negotiated settlement.

Beyond Tigray, continued war diverts resources from an economy already under strain and risks sending more displaced people across regional and international borders. The Horn of Africa sits near key maritime routes, and instability in one of its largest states complicates efforts to manage security, aid, and trade.

Indicators that will shape what happens next include any confirmed movement of Eritrean forces near the Tigray frontier, steps by African or other mediators to restart talks, and changes in access for humanitarian agencies trying to reach Mekelle and surrounding areas.

Sources

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