Saudi plan for Bab el-Mandeb offensive puts Red Sea shipping and Iran-backed Houthis on collision course
Saudi Arabia is preparing a major new campaign against Yemen’s Houthis aimed at retaking the Bab el-Mandeb strait and reopening a critical Red Sea corridor, with U.S. backing and up to 100,000 Yemeni troops in play. For oil exporters, shippers and regional governments, the push could ease one chokepoint while creating another inside Yemen.
Saudi Arabia is moving toward a fresh military confrontation with Yemen’s Houthi movement, planning an offensive within weeks to retake the Bab el-Mandeb strait and restore safer passage through the southern Red Sea, according to Western and regional officials. Any assault on the Houthi-held coast would reopen a central front in a war Riyadh has tried to wind down, but now sees as directly tied to global energy flows.
Officials say Riyadh is weighing two options: a limited campaign focused on coastal areas overlooking Bab el-Mandeb, or a broader multi-front operation reaching deeper into Yemen. Both would rely heavily on Saudi air power, with ground forces drawn largely from more than 100,000 Yemeni troops that Saudi Arabia could mobilize. The United States is described as providing intelligence and military support, but not combat forces.
The immediate driver is the Houthis’ effective grip on traffic entering and leaving the Red Sea, a route that has become more vital this year as shippers look for alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. Strikes, threats and drone harassment linked to Houthi forces have pushed up insurance costs and forced some cargoes onto longer routes around Africa. For tanker crews and container operators, a Saudi push on Bab el-Mandeb could mean either a relief from constant risk or a more dangerous, militarized shoreline.
For Yemenis in the likely battle zones, the costs could be harsher. Coastal communities in Houthi-controlled territory already live within range of airstrikes and naval bombardment. A ground campaign would bring artillery, armor and street fighting back to towns that saw some of the heaviest combat early in the war. Houthi fighters have a record of digging in among civilian areas; Saudi commanders know every advance risks both casualties and international scrutiny.
Strategically, the operation would test how far Riyadh is willing to go to secure sea lanes that carry a large share of its own exports and much of Europe and Asia’s trade. Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean; instability there reverberates from Suez Canal revenues in Egypt to refinery supply schedules in the Mediterranean and Asia. A prolonged fight could still scare off shipowners, even if Houthi launch sites are pushed back from the coast.
The plan also exposes the shifting geometry of alliances around the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia, the United States and various Yemeni factions share an interest in reducing Houthi leverage over shipping. Iran, seen as the Houthis’ primary backer, gains influence every day its partners can threaten traffic near Bab el-Mandeb. Regional officials will be watching for any Iranian response, whether in Yemen itself or across other fronts where Tehran has options.
The offensive talk fits a broader pattern of U.S. and partner militaries trying to manage multiple chokepoint risks at once: Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope that become relevant when the other two look unsafe. Red Sea risk doesn’t require a total closure to matter; a handful of missile launches or drone overflights can be enough to change the math for shipowners and insurers.
The clearest signals to watch next are Saudi force movements in southern Saudi Arabia and along Yemen’s borders, visible preparations in Yemeni ports near Bab el-Mandeb, and any formal statements from Riyadh about objectives or timelines. Shifts in Houthi messaging or intensified attacks on shipping would also indicate the group is bracing for a fight. For energy markets, early reactions will show whether traders think this campaign will shorten the line of risk around the Arabian Peninsula or draw it out.
Sources
- OSINT