Ukraine Says Russia Planning Its Most Destructive Winter Air Campaign Against Major Cities
Ukrainian officials say a massive strike on Kyiv’s energy system was the opening move in what they describe as Russia’s most destructive winter campaign yet, citing a document they identify as an intercepted plan to use large numbers of missiles and drones against electricity, heating, and water supplies in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa.
Ukraine is preparing for another winter under air attack, warning that Russia has drawn up a campaign designed to inflict even greater damage on its energy and water systems than in previous years.
Ukrainian officials say a recent large‑scale strike on Kyiv’s energy infrastructure marked the start of this effort. According to them, the attack targeted the capital’s power network and signaled a return to Russia’s strategy of hitting civilian services as temperatures fall.
They base their warning on what they describe as an intercepted Russian plan. The New York Times has obtained a copy of this document, which Ukraine identifies as originating from Russian planning. Ukrainian officials say it describes a winter campaign using missiles and drones to systematically degrade electricity, heating, and water supply in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa.
The claims have not been independently verified in full, but they match Russia’s previous pattern of winter attacks on Ukraine’s grid. Ukrainian authorities argue that the new plan outlines a more sustained effort, with repeated blows aimed at overwhelming air defenses and repair crews.
For civilians, the consequences are direct. Damage to power infrastructure can leave parts of cities without heat, light, running water, or mobile communications. Prolonged outages in winter can force families to rely on generators, candles, and improvised heating, each carrying safety risks. Hospitals and other essential services switch to backup systems that are not designed for long‑term use.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Vladimir Putin wants to force residents to leave Kyiv and plunge Ukraine into chaos, framing the attacks on energy infrastructure as an attempt to break the country’s social and political resilience.
Ukraine’s air defenses and electronic warfare units will carry much of the burden in this phase of the war. The 413th RAID Regiment says its electronic warfare operators have protected military equipment worth over 2.1 billion hryvnias from Russian drone strikes in the past six months and have saved more than 200 Ukrainian soldiers targeted by Russian FPV and Molniya drones. That record shows how Ukrainian forces are adapting to drone attacks.
At the same time, Kyiv’s leadership is trying to ensure the armed forces and their families can withstand prolonged strain. The government has decided to direct more than 50 billion hryvnias to payments for military personnel and their relatives, reallocating funds from a reserve for the security and defense sector to keep up with obligations.
Ukrainian officials warn that Russia sees pressure on Western support as another element of the winter campaign. They argue that sustained strikes on infrastructure are meant to test whether partners will continue providing air defense systems, munitions, and equipment needed to repair damaged grids.
Signals that will show how this winter unfolds include the scale and frequency of Russian missile and drone attacks, the extent of damage to energy and water networks in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa, and the speed with which Ukraine’s partners move to bolster air defenses and critical infrastructure supplies. Inside Ukraine, the government’s ability to maintain basic services and pay its armed forces will be a measure of whether it can absorb another season of bombardment.
Sources
- OSINT