France and Türkiye Block NATO’s Outreach to Armenia and Azerbaijan, Exposing Alliance Fractures
New NATO partnership plans for Armenia and Azerbaijan have been stalled for more than a year as France and Türkiye veto each other’s files over bilateral disputes. The deadlock leaves the alliance divided on how to engage in the South Caucasus, a region that sits between Russia, Iran, and key energy routes.
NATO’s attempt to deepen ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan has run aground on internal rifts, with France and Türkiye blocking each other’s preferred partner and leaving new cooperation plans frozen for over a year.
The proposed partnerships, which would expand joint exercises, military training and political consultation with the two South Caucasus states, have been held up in the alliance’s consensus-based decision-making. Officials say France has blocked Azerbaijan’s partnership track over sharp bilateral disputes, while Türkiye has responded by blocking Armenia’s file, insisting both packages move forward together or not at all.
At stake are not formal membership talks but the architecture of NATO’s engagement in a region that has seen war, displacement and shifting borders in recent years. Armenia has sought closer Western ties after losing ground to Azerbaijan in fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, while Azerbaijan has balanced relations with Russia, Türkiye and the West as it consolidates its battlefield gains. NATO’s tailored partnership programs are one of the few structured ways the alliance can influence defence reforms, interoperability and political alignment short of opening the door to membership.
France’s opposition to deepened NATO-Azerbaijan cooperation is rooted in a broader clash with Baku. Paris has been sharply critical of Azerbaijan’s offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and has moved to support Armenia with security assistance. Azerbaijan, in turn, has accused France of bias and interference. Against that backdrop, French diplomats have blocked the Azerbaijan partnership package at NATO, seeing no reason to offer Baku more legitimacy or access while core political grievances remain unresolved.
Türkiye views the situation through a different lens. Ankara is a staunch military ally of Azerbaijan and played a significant role in boosting its capabilities. Turkish officials argue that NATO should not push Baku away at a time when Western influence in the region is already under pressure from Russia and Iran. In response to the French veto, Türkiye has used its own veto power to halt NATO’s parallel effort to upgrade cooperation with Armenia, insisting that the alliance treat the two South Caucasus states in tandem.
For Armenia, the deadlock is a fresh reminder of its vulnerability. Yerevan has tried to pivot away from dependence on Russia, angered by what it sees as Moscow’s failure to protect Armenian interests during and after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Closer ties to NATO and the European Union are part of that strategy. Having its NATO partnership stalled by a dispute that is only partly about Armenia leaves it exposed at a time when it is already negotiating new security arrangements and grappling with refugee flows.
For Azerbaijan, the practical impact of the delay is more modest. Baku has options with Türkiye, Russia and other partners. But being seen as blocked by a key NATO power reinforces a narrative inside Azerbaijan that some Western capitals will never accept its military gains, and it reduces the alliance’s leverage in shaping Baku’s future choices on issues such as border demarcation and treatment of displaced Armenians.
Strategically, the impasse exposes how national grievances can hamstring an alliance that prides itself on unity. While NATO focuses most of its energy on Russia’s war in Ukraine and deterrence on its eastern flank, its inability to agree on modest partnership frameworks in the South Caucasus cedes space to other power centers. This matters for energy security too: the region hosts pipelines that move Caspian gas to Europe, and instability there can quickly turn into price and supply questions further west.
A useful way to think about this is that great-power competition often hinges on what happens in the gaps between formal commitments. By failing to close those gaps in Armenia and Azerbaijan, NATO is leaving diplomatic and security room for Russia, Iran and even China to maneuver.
The next turning points to watch include any shift in France’s stance toward Azerbaijan, whether through bilateral negotiations or changes on the ground, and whether Türkiye signals willingness to decouple Armenia’s file from Baku’s. If alliance foreign ministers cannot unblock the packages in upcoming meetings, NATO may be forced to explore looser, more ad hoc ways of working with both countries, leaving the deeper partnership question unresolved.
Sources
- OSINT