PKK Withdrawal Plan on Iraq–Turkey Border Raises Fears of Security Vacuum in Qandil Mountains
Iraq plans to send border guards and Peshmerga into areas vacated by the PKK, while senior PKK leader Mustafa Karasu warns that leaving the Qandil Mountains could open a major security vacuum and fuel internal tensions inside the group.
A planned pullback by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) from positions along the Iraq–Turkey border is entering a sensitive phase, with Baghdad outlining new deployments and a senior PKK commander warning of serious security risks if the group leaves its mountain strongholds.
Sabah al-Numan, spokesperson for the Iraqi Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, has said that Iraqi border guard units and Kurdish Peshmerga forces will take over areas the PKK vacates along the frontier with Turkey. The aim is to prevent a power vacuum and reassure Ankara that hostile militants will no longer be entrenched on its southern border.
Al-Numan has also said five locations will be designated for PKK members to hand over their weapons. Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) is to conduct field inspections to verify that 72 agreed sites have been cleared, giving Ankara a direct role in confirming compliance with the arrangement.
From the PKK side, there are warnings of unintended consequences. Mustafa Karasu, one of the group’s senior leaders, has argued that withdrawing from headquarters in the Qandil Mountains could create a major security vacuum. He has said that such a vacuum could allow armed groups such as ISIS to establish a presence in the area. Karasu has also indicated that a withdrawal could trigger internal tensions within the PKK itself.
For civilians in northern Iraq, the outcome of the handover will shape daily security. The replacement of one armed actor with several others, including federal forces and Peshmerga, could reduce cross-border strikes if Turkey is satisfied, but it could also produce new friction if coordination on the ground proves weak.
The process will test whether joint control by Iraqi and Kurdish units can effectively secure remote, mountainous border regions that have long hosted insurgent activity. It will also show how far Turkey, Iraq and Kurdish authorities can cooperate in managing a phased PKK disengagement.
Key signs of how the plan is working will include whether Iraqi and Peshmerga forces physically occupy former PKK positions without clashes, whether MIT confirms that the 72 sites have been fully vacated, and whether there are reports of ISIS or other armed groups moving into the Qandil area.
Sources
- OSINT