Goldman Sachs Sees Hormuz Still Carrying Around Two‑Thirds of Pre‑War Oil Flows
About 15–16 million barrels a day of oil and oil products still move through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly two‑thirds of pre‑war volumes, Goldman Sachs estimates. The figure shows that even under conflict conditions, the world’s most sensitive energy chokepoint remains heavily used and vulnerable to disruptions.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen since the start of open conflict with Iran, but they remain high enough that any disruption could still shake global markets.
According to an internal report by financial firm Goldman Sachs, about 15–16 million barrels per day of crude and refined products are currently moving through Hormuz. That is around two‑thirds of the oil traffic that passed through the strait before the war with Iran.
The estimate covers standard tanker shipments as well as back‑to‑back transfers and other methods used to keep cargo moving despite higher security risks and sanctions pressure.
The continued use of Hormuz reflects its role as the main route for Gulf producers to reach world markets. Even with some diversification through pipelines and alternative routes, many Asian and European importers still depend heavily on these shipments.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has accused elements in the US government of trying to influence energy markets for personal gain and to keep the US president engaged in a losing war, and has claimed that actors aligned with Israel promote escalation with overly optimistic assessments. He argues that US consumers ultimately feel the impact.
For oil buyers and shipping firms, the Goldman Sachs figures underline that Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint: high volumes continue to pass through a narrow and contested waterway. Even a temporary reduction in transits caused by military incidents, accidents or political decisions could quickly tighten supply.
Signals to watch include changes in shipping insurance costs for Gulf routes, any shifts in tanker traffic away from Hormuz to alternative paths, and public statements from regional and US officials about security measures and red lines in the strait.
Sources
- OSINT