Published: · Region: Eastern Europe · Category: intelligence

Russia Bank Forecast of Attrition Defeat in Ukraine Exposes Kremlin War Weakness

A key Kremlin‑aligned state bank is reported to be warning that Russia will lose a prolonged war of attrition against Ukraine, undercutting Moscow’s public insistence that time is on its side. The internal assessment, if accurately described, signals mounting concern over Russia’s ability to sustain manpower, industry and finance in a grinding conflict.

An internal forecast by a major Kremlin‑linked state bank reportedly concludes that Russia is on track to lose a long war of attrition against Ukraine, a stark contrast to Moscow’s public message that it can outlast Kyiv and the West. Details made public on 16 August said the bank’s analysts predict Russia would not prevail in a drawn‑out attritional conflict, although the specific time horizon, assumptions and exact wording have not been disclosed. The institution is described as a key arm of the Russian state’s financial machinery, a role that gives its internal models weight in policy circles even if the assessments never appear on balance sheets. If accurately characterized,…

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