Trump’s Turkey Pivot Tests NATO Unity and Exposes F‑35 Fault Lines
At the NATO summit in Ankara, Donald Trump pledged to lift U.S. CAATSA sanctions on Turkey and signaled support for bringing Ankara back into the F‑35 fighter program, even as Israel’s leader publicly warns against the sale. The shift could restore a key defense partnership — or open a new rift inside NATO over how far to trust Turkey’s balancing act between Washington and Moscow.
Donald Trump used his visit to Ankara not just to attend a NATO summit but to redraw the outlines of Washington’s relationship with one of the alliance’s most difficult partners, betting that personal ties with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can override years of mistrust over Russian weapons, sanctions and fighter jets.
On 7 July, Trump said he will lift U.S. sanctions on Turkey imposed under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), penalties originally triggered by Ankara’s purchase of Russia’s S‑400 air defense system. Those measures have weighed heavily on Turkey’s defense sector and were central to its ejection from the F‑35 stealth fighter program. Trump framed the decision bluntly: "We don't want to sanction friends," adding that the relationship with Turkey is "better probably than it's ever been" and praising the country’s military strength.
Turkish officials quickly moved to lock in the political momentum. Erdogan said his country had previously received a commitment from the United States for five F‑35s and that Trump had "given his word" on the matter again in Ankara. He expressed confidence that a favorable decision would be made. Trump, asked directly whether he would sell F‑35s to Turkey given lingering legal restrictions, replied that Washington would "make a decision" and suggested many in the room would ask why it should not move ahead. He brushed aside concerns about Turkey’s Russian missile systems, saying, "I don't have concerns about anything."
The transactional warmth in Ankara contrasted sharply with the alarm voiced elsewhere. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Israel’s Haifa naval base and, according to local reporting, warned Turkey over maritime routes and publicly opposed any F‑35 sale to Ankara. Israel has long seen advanced Western fighters in neighboring hands as a direct strategic issue, and Turkey’s support for factions hostile to Israel has deepened that unease. Netanyahu framed his navy’s mission as securing maritime trade routes vital to Israel, a reminder that regional air and sea power are tightly linked in the Eastern Mediterranean.
For Turkey, the stakes are enormous. Access to F‑35s would restore its role in the alliance’s high‑end airpower ecosystem and symbolically reverse a humiliating exclusion. Lifting CAATSA sanctions could ease pressure on Ankara’s defense industry and help it attract new co‑production and export deals — a priority showcased by the roughly $50 billion in defense industry contracts signed among NATO partners in Ankara, according to Turkish officials. For Turkish commanders, the message from Washington is that their country is moving back from the margins and into the core of NATO planning and procurement.
But the same moves risk opening new lines of fracture inside the alliance. U.S. law still embeds conditions around the S‑400 purchase, and Congress retains the power to block or slow fighter sales, particularly if members argue that sensitive F‑35 technology could be compromised by proximity to Russian systems. Other NATO members who have accepted stringent conditions to buy U.S. equipment will watch closely to see whether Ankara is effectively rewarded for a decision they considered a threat to collective security.
The Ankara summit is exposing a broader question: is NATO prepared to accept a more autonomous Turkey — one that buys from Russia, pressures neighbors in the Mediterranean, and still expects top-tier Western kit — in exchange for keeping its large military firmly inside the Western camp? For now, Trump is signaling that loyalty to his White House matters more than past transgressions, while some European leaders privately worry that standards are being rewritten on the fly.
When a country can go from being sanctioned over Russian weapons to being courted for one of America’s most advanced jets in a single news cycle, it sends a clear message: in today’s NATO, the rules are political before they are legal.
The next markers to watch will be whether the U.S. administration formally notifies Congress of any intent to resume F‑35 cooperation with Turkey, how vocal Israeli and Greek officials become in opposing such a deal, and whether other NATO parliaments start conditioning their own defense cooperation with Ankara. Any sign that Congress moves to block exports, or that Turkey accelerates alternative fighter purchases from non‑Western suppliers, would show just how fragile this new opening really is.
Sources
- OSINT