Published: · Severity: WARNING · Category: Breaking

US weighs resuming strikes on Iran; jets sheltered in Pakistan

Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-05-12T11:38:31.325Z

Summary

Reports indicate President Trump will consult the NSC on resuming military operations against Iran, while Pakistan has allowed Iranian military aircraft to park at its Nur Khan Air Base to shield them from potential US strikes. This materially raises the near‑term risk of US–Iran kinetic escalation and knock‑on threats to Gulf oil infrastructure and shipping, supporting a higher crude and Middle East risk premium.

Details

  1. What happened: Axios reports that US President Donald Trump will discuss with the National Security Council resuming military operations against Iran. Separately, CBS‑cited US officials say Pakistan has allowed Iranian military aircraft to park at its airfields, including the strategic Nur Khan Air Base, as a way to shield them from possible US strikes despite Islamabad’s mediating role. These moves come against a backdrop of Iranian threats to enrich uranium up to 90% if attacked again and ongoing tensions over the security of Gulf oil routes.

  2. Supply/demand impact: No physical oil or gas supply has been disrupted yet, and there are no concrete reports of new sanctions or strikes on energy infrastructure. However, the probability‑weighted risk of a strike campaign on Iranian assets—potentially including IRGC naval units, missile sites, or even export infrastructure—has increased. Any Iranian response could involve harassment or partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even if temporary, putting at risk up to ~17–18 mb/d of crude and condensate flows and significant LNG volumes from Qatar and the UAE. Markets typically front‑run such scenarios via higher flat prices and options skew.

  3. Affected assets and direction: The most directly affected are Brent and WTI crude, Dubai benchmarks, and time spreads, with an upside bias of several dollars if rhetoric hardens or operational steps (force movements, pre‑strike positioning) are confirmed. Oil vol (OVX), refined products (gasoil, RBOB) and Middle East sovereign CDS (Iran, GCC periphery) would see wider risk premia. FX risk is skewed toward safe‑haven strength (USD, CHF) versus EM FX with high oil import dependence (INR, PKR, TRY), while GCC FX pegs see higher implied risk but remain anchored.

  4. Historical precedent: Pre‑strike buildups before the 2020 Soleimani killing, the 2019 Abqaiq attack, and prior Hormuz scare episodes typically added 3–8% to Brent in days, even without sustained supply loss. Market reaction will depend on whether this NSC discussion translates into visible military preparations or is perceived as signaling leverage.

  5. Duration: For now the impact is primarily risk‑premium, transient but potentially volatile over days to weeks. If strikes occur or Hormuz is credibly threatened, the effect could become structural, repricing 2H26–2027 curves higher and tightening crack spreads.

AFFECTED ASSETS: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Oil volatility (OVX), Gasoil futures, RBOB gasoline futures, Qatari LNG-linked contracts, Middle East sovereign CDS, USD/IRR (parallel), PKR, INR, TRY

Sources

Related Coverage

WARNING

Ukraine Ceasefire Collapses; Kuwait Accuses IRGC of Port Attack Plot

Around 11:33 UTC on 12 May, reports stated that the ceasefire in Ukraine has ended and full-scale war has resumed. Separately, at 12:00 UTC, Kuwait publicly accused Iran’s Revolutionary Guard of sending a team earlier in May to attack Bubiyan Island, site of a China-backed port project, with four suspects arrested. Together, these moves signal sharpening confrontation on the Russia–Ukraine front and heightened Iran-related security risk in a key Gulf state.
WARNING

Kuwait Accuses IRGC of Plot on China-Backed Port; US–Ukraine Drone Deal

Around 12:00 UTC on 12 May 2026, Kuwait stated that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard sent a team earlier this month to attack Bubiyan Island, home to a China-backed port project; four suspects were arrested and two escaped, with Tehran yet to respond. Separately at 11:57 UTC, reports indicate the U.S. and Ukraine are drafting a defense deal focused on joint drone manufacturing and tech transfer after Ukraine’s performance in wars with Russia and Iran. Together these moves signal rising Iran-related security risks in the Gulf and a deepening U.S.–Ukraine defense-industrial partnership with long-term implications for Russia, Iran, and the global arms market.
WARNING

US Sanctions Hit IRGC’s China-Facing Oil Sales Network

The US has sanctioned 12 individuals and entities accused of helping Iran’s IRGC sell and ship crude to China. While this targets a specific facilitation network rather than Iranian production directly, it raises execution risk and costs around moving Iranian barrels, marginally tightening perceived supply and adding to the Middle East risk premium.
MIDDLE EAST

U.S. Targets IRGC Oil Network as Iran Tension Rises

On 12 May 2026, Washington announced new sanctions on 12 individuals and entities accused of facilitating Iranian oil sales to China on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The move tightens financial pressure on Tehran amid broader confrontation over attacks, nuclear signals, and maritime security.
EASTERN EUROPE

U.S. and Ukraine Draft Pact for Joint Drone Manufacturing

Reports on 12 May 2026 indicate Washington and Kyiv are drafting a defense agreement centered on drone technology and joint production. The proposed deal would leverage Ukraine’s wartime innovations and enable Ukrainian firms to co-produce systems with U.S. companies for mutual export and operational use.
SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan Reportedly Shelters Iranian Jets Amid U.S.–Iran Crisis

On 12 May 2026, reports surfaced that Pakistan allowed Iranian military aircraft, including at Nur Khan Air Base, to park on its territory to shield them from potential U.S. strikes. The move comes as Islamabad seeks to mediate between Washington and Tehran while balancing its own security interests.