Published: · Severity: WARNING · Category: Breaking

WMO Warns of Potentially Very Strong El Niño Into 2027

Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-09-03T16:21:18.077Z

Summary

The World Meteorological Organization reports that El Niño conditions are now established and have a near-100% chance of persisting into early 2027, with potential to strengthen into a very strong episode. This raises multi-quarter risks of weather-driven disruptions to global agriculture, soft commodities, and some energy demand patterns.

Details

  1. What happened: The WMO has formally warned that El Niño is already underway, could intensify to a very strong event by late 2026, and has an almost 100% probability of persisting through February 2027. This is not a routine seasonal outlook; the emphasis on both strength and duration elevates its relevance for commodity markets.

  2. Supply-side and demand impacts:

  1. Affected assets and direction:

  1. Historical precedent: Strong El Niño events (1997–98, 2015–16) were associated with notable price spikes and volatility in several softs and grains, and with significant forecast errors in agricultural output. Markets typically start building a premium months ahead as confidence in event strength and duration rises.

  2. Duration of impact: This is a structural, multi-quarter driver rather than a transient shock. Pricing effects will phase in as regional weather anomalies materialize or fail to materialize, and as crop outlooks for 2026–27 planting and harvest cycles are revised. Volatility and weather-related risk premia in agricultural and some regional energy markets are likely to remain elevated into at least early 2027.

AFFECTED ASSETS: CBOT Wheat, CBOT Corn, CBOT Soybeans, NY Sugar No.11, ICE Arabica Coffee, ICE Cocoa, Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil, Henry Hub gas, TTF gas, JKM LNG

Sources

Related Coverage

WARNING

Ukrainian Naval Drones Hit Russian Black Sea Port of Sochi

Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels have attacked the Russian port of Sochi on the Black Sea. While damage details are not yet clear, the strike underscores expanding Ukrainian reach against Russian maritime infrastructure, adding incremental risk premium to Black Sea trade and regional logistics.
FLASH

Reports: Iran Missiles, Fresh Explosions Threaten Strait of Hormuz Oil Lifeline

Around 15:58–15:59 UTC, open sources reported new Iranian missile launches toward the Strait of Hormuz and explosions in the area, raising the risk that the world’s most critical oil transit corridor is under renewed fire. Any sustained threat to traffic or infrastructure here would hit global energy prices within hours and force governments and traders to reprice Gulf war risk.
FLASH

Explosions, Iranian Missiles Reported in Strait of Hormuz

Fresh reports indicate Iranian missile launches toward the Strait of Hormuz and explosions in the area, a vital chokepoint for global oil flows. This materially raises near-term disruption risk and geopolitical risk premium for crude and tanker routes, even before confirmation of damage to vessels or infrastructure.
MIDDLE EAST

Iranian Missile Fire Near Strait of Hormuz Puts Global Oil Lifeline at Risk

Iran has launched missiles toward the Strait of Hormuz, with explosions reported in the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint. For tanker crews, insurers and energy buyers, even a brief scare in these waters raises real questions about how secure Gulf exports are — and how far Tehran is ready to go.
EASTERN EUROPE

Ukrainian Sea Drones Strike Sochi Port, Pushing War Deeper Into Russia’s Black Sea Coast

Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels have attacked the Russian Black Sea port of Sochi, an area previously viewed as relatively insulated from the front. The strike carries more symbolic than confirmed physical damage for now, but it pushes the war deeper into Russia’s heartland coastline and raises fresh questions about the safety of Black Sea logistics.
GLOBAL

RMM Phishing Campaign Using Legitimate Remote Tools Hits 46 Countries, Puts U.S. Firms on Front Line

A sprawling phishing campaign abusing remote monitoring and management software has been tracked across 46 countries, with nearly half of observed activity hitting U.S. targets. By luring victims with fake tax, shipping and invoice messages into installing legitimate remote tools, attackers are blurring the line between trusted software and intrusion.