Published: · Severity: WARNING · Category: Breaking

NASA warns El Niño-driven Pacific phytoplankton decline

Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-08-18T16:12:17.834Z

Summary

NASA reports a marked decline in Pacific phytoplankton due to an intensifying El Niño, with NOAA assigning a 97% probability that El Niño persists into early 2027. Prolonged anomalous ocean conditions can disrupt marine food chains and key Pacific fisheries, lifting risk premia in seafood and some coastal economies.

Details

NASA has detected a decline in phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean linked to an ongoing El Niño, while NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts this El Niño will intensify through the end of 2026 and likely persist into early 2027 (97% probability). El Niño weakens trade winds and reduces upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water, which suppresses phytoplankton—the base of the marine food web. This is a structural climate signal, not a one-off event.

In supply terms, reduced primary productivity in large areas of the Pacific raises the likelihood of weaker fish stocks over the next 1–2 years, especially for pelagic species dependent on nutrient-rich upwelling zones (e.g., anchoveta off Peru/Chile, tuna in parts of the central and eastern Pacific, and related species). Historically, strong or prolonged El Niño episodes have forced quota cuts and temporary fishery closures in Peru and Chile, sharply tightening supply of fishmeal and fish oil, and pressuring global fish and seafood availability.

The most directly affected commodities are fishmeal and fish oil (inputs into global animal feed and aquaculture), broader seafood markets, and potentially some livestock and oilseed complexes via substitution effects in feed rations. The directional bias is bullish for fishmeal and fish oil prices, and modestly bullish for global protein complexes (soymeal, rapeseed meal) over a 6–24 month horizon if major South American fisheries are again constrained.

Historical precedent includes the 1997–98 and 2015–16 El Niño events, both of which triggered sizable volatility and multi-year highs in fishmeal prices and contributed to tighter global protein feed balances. Given the long lead times, markets may initially underprice the risk, but as further science data and fishery management responses emerge (e.g., quota announcements), price moves >1–3% in related contracts are probable.

This development is structural rather than transient: as long as El Niño persists with suppressed upwelling, biological productivity and fish recruitment will be impaired, and expectations for marine protein supply over the next several seasons will be revised downward. The signal also reinforces broader climate-risk premia across agriculture and food-related assets, though its near-term effect is focused on marine and feed markets rather than bulk grains.

AFFECTED ASSETS: fishmeal prices, fish oil prices, Peru/Chile fishery quota-linked credits, soymeal futures, aquaculture sector equities, Pacific coastal fisheries and seafood exporters

Sources

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