US launches new large strike wave on targets inside Iran
Severity: FLASH
Detected: 2026-07-13T12:35:36.375Z
Summary
CENTCOM reports a new wave of US strikes on ‘dozens’ of targets across Iran following earlier attacks on the Abadan oil hub. This materially increases the probability of further Iranian retaliation affecting oil exports and Hormuz transit, sustaining and potentially expanding the Middle East risk premium in crude and products.
Details
CENTCOM has announced completion of another wave of offensive strikes against Iran, using Tomahawk cruise missiles and F/A‑18s to hit “dozens of targets at multiple locations.” This follows earlier confirmed US strikes around Iran’s Abadan energy complex and coincides with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps already halting transit through the Strait of Hormuz, plus ongoing missile and naval incidents. While today’s communique does not specify that energy infrastructure was targeted, the scale and depth of this campaign sharply raise the probability that Iran will escalate beyond symbolic responses.
From a market perspective, the key transmission channel is Iranian crude and condensate exports (2+ mb/d on a gross basis, with ~1.5 mb/d effectively on the market) and the security of shipping through Hormuz, through which ~17–20 mb/d of crude and large volumes of LNG transit. Even without physical damage to upstream or export infrastructure, shipowners, insurers, and charterers will demand higher premia or temporarily avoid the highest‑risk lanes, tightening available tonnage and effectively increasing delivered costs into Asia and Europe. Any perceived risk that Iran could mine, harass, or selectively close the Hormuz corridor – even if not fully executed – historically has added several dollars per barrel to Brent in short order (cf. 2019 tanker incidents, 1987–88 Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq conflict).
This round of strikes, layered on already ongoing clashes, supports: (1) a higher and stickier geopolitical risk premium in Brent/WTI, (2) wider Dubai‑Brent spreads if Asian buyers pivot towards non‑Iranian Middle East grades, and (3) upside in refined products, especially gasoline and middle distillates, given Abadan’s scale and Iran’s potential to interfere with regional product flows. Gold and defensive FX (USD, CHF) also tend to catch safe‑haven bids during US‑Iran escalations.
Unless there is a rapid diplomatic off‑ramp combined with clear assurances on shipping safety, this looks more structural than transient: a multi‑week to multi‑month period of elevated Middle East energy risk. Intraday, this level of US kinetic action against Iran is sufficient to move Brent several percent, particularly given the existing Hormuz disruption headlines.
AFFECTED ASSETS: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Gasoil futures, Singapore middle distillates, LNG spot Asia, Gold, USD Index, USD/IRR, Tanker equities (especially MEG‑Asia routes)
Sources
- OSINT