Iran Blames U.S. for Hormuz Tensions, Disputes ‘Secure Route’
Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-07-13T08:55:32.287Z
Summary
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman accused Washington of bearing “direct responsibility” for recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz and said the U.S. is trying to bypass a “secure route coordinated with Iran,” while reiterating that Tehran will not fulfill its own commitments as long as the U.S. does not. The rhetoric signals heightened contestation over tanker routing and security arrangements in the key chokepoint, raising the risk premium on Gulf crude and shipping.
Details
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei has publicly asserted that the United States bears “direct responsibility for the recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz” and accused Washington of trying to bypass a “secure route coordinated with Iran.” He also reiterated that as long as the U.S. continues to violate its commitments, Iran will likewise refrain from honoring its own obligations. This comes against the backdrop of earlier IRGC claims of attacks on U.S. radar and bases in Gulf states, suggesting a broader escalation trajectory.
While there is no explicit report in this set of an ongoing physical closure of the Strait or a fresh tanker seizure, this messaging directly targets the legitimacy of any U.S.-backed maritime security scheme that circumvents Iranian coordination. Markets will interpret this as an elevated probability of harassment of tankers seen as part of a “non‑approved” route, cyber or drone activity against maritime surveillance assets, or selective enforcement against ships linked to U.S. allies.
Roughly 17–20 million bpd of crude and condensate and a significant share of global LNG exports transit Hormuz. Even a modest perceived rise in disruption probability can add a risk premium of several dollars per barrel in prior episodes (e.g., 2019 tanker incidents, 2020 Soleimani aftermath). In the base case, flows are unlikely to be materially interrupted in the near term, but insurers and owners may demand higher war risk premia or rerouting/convoy measures for U.S.-linked or flagged tonnage.
The immediate impact is bullish for Brent and Dubai/Oman benchmarks, and for Middle East tanker freight rates, especially VLCCs loading from the Gulf. Gold typically benefits from Gulf escalation risk through a broader flight to safety. FX impact is secondary but could support safe-haven USD and JPY on risk-off, while adding marginal pressure to EM oil importers’ currencies. If rhetoric escalates into even one high‑profile boarding or missile/drone incident in or near Hormuz, the price response could exceed a 3–5% move over several sessions. For now, this is a risk‑premium story rather than a confirmed supply outage, with impact that can persist for days to weeks depending on follow‑through actions and threat signaling from both sides.
AFFECTED ASSETS: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Gulf VLCC freight, LNG spot Asia, Gold, USDJPY, GCC sovereign CDS
Sources
- OSINT