Published: · Severity: WARNING · Category: Breaking

Fuel shortages hit Tomsk, Novosibirsk as Russia’s supply strains deepen

Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-07-10T11:15:01.131Z

Summary

Authorities in Tomsk and Novosibirsk regions are urging companies to shift to remote work and residents to limit car use due to fuel shortages. This points to widening internal Russian fuel supply stress following repeated refinery and tanker attacks, adding incremental upside risk to refined product cracks and Russian export disruption.

Details

  1. What happened: New local guidance in Russia’s Tomsk and Novosibirsk regions recommends companies move staff to remote work and asks residents to limit car travel because of fuel shortages. These are interior, economically significant Siberian regions, not front-line areas, indicating that domestic fuel supply issues are now constraining civilian mobility and business operations rather than being confined to localized disruptions near attacked assets.

  2. Supply/demand impact: The report signals that Russia’s internal fuel distribution system is under enough stress that regional authorities are actively rationing through demand curbs. While the absolute volume impact is not quantified, Tomsk and Novosibirsk together represent several million people and substantial industrial and logistics activity. The shortages likely stem from a combination of refinery outages (already under attack), damaged storage or logistics, and possible prioritization of military needs. This raises the probability that Russia will need to redirect more production to the domestic market and/or curtail exports of gasoline and diesel, particularly to nearby markets (e.g., Turkey, North Africa, Latin America) where Russian products have been filling gaps since 2022.

  3. Affected assets and directional bias: The immediate market impact channel is through refined product exports rather than crude. If these shortages reflect broader systemic constraints, expect bullish pressure on:

  1. Historical precedent: Comparable episodes include Russia’s intermittent domestic fuel shortages in 2010–2011 and, more recently, the 2023 export bans on gasoline/diesel, both of which tightened global product markets and widened refining margins. Then, localized Russian shortages translated into broader price spikes, especially in diesel.

  2. Duration of impact: The directive suggests more than a one-off logistical hiccup; it reflects a tightening domestic balance that could persist as long as refineries and tanker logistics remain under attack. Market impact is likely medium-term (weeks to a few months), especially if compounded by additional strikes or formal Russian product export restrictions.

AFFECTED ASSETS: ICE Gasoil futures, European diesel cracks, Singapore middle distillates, Brent Crude, Urals crude differentials, Russian fuel oil exports, EUR/RUB

Sources

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