Street Clashes and Israeli Fury Threaten Trump–Iran Hormuz Deal, Reports Say
Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-06-13T21:21:00.169Z
Summary
Within hours of Donald Trump touting a Sunday deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian conservative protesters clashed with security forces in Tehran, Qom and Mashhad while IRGC-aligned figures denounced the text as turning Iran into a ‘colony of America’. Senior Israeli officials are calling the memorandum a “catastrophe” that harms Israeli interests and admit they no longer have leverage, heightening the risk of internal sabotage in Iran or external disruption by Israel that could derail oil shipping relief.
Details
Donald Trump’s Saturday claim that a US–Iran agreement will be signed on Sunday and immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz is already colliding with powerful resistance on the ground and in the region. Within hours of his post, multiple reports from Iranian and regional channels point to conservative-led street protests, clashes with security forces in several cities, and open revolt by hardline elites, while senior Israeli officials label the draft memorandum a strategic disaster they are unable to stop.
Confirmed details from the past hour indicate that protests against the emerging US–Iran agreement are underway in Tehran’s Avicenna Square and have spread to Qom and Mashhad. One report describes demonstrators aligned with the conservative camp chanting “Death to Ghalibaf” and calling for revenge for the assassination of Ali Khamenei, directly targeting Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf as collaborators in the deal. Another cites Hojjatoleslam Nabavian, a pro‑IRGC extremist figure, asserting that “according to the text of the agreement, we become a colony of America” and accusing Araghchi of accepting all US proposals. These are not fringe social media posts but rhetoric from a faction historically close to Iran’s security establishment.
In parallel, an Israeli‑focused report quotes senior Israeli officials as calling the memorandum expected Sunday “a bad deal” that “damages Israeli interests”, with one saying, “Trump failed us… we’re no longer in the circuit and cannot really influence.” That admission of lost leverage, combined with the assessment that the accord is strategically catastrophic, increases the incentive for Israeli security actors or aligned proxies to consider unilateral steps—covert, cyber, or kinetic—to shape the post‑deal environment or even pre‑empt implementation.
For people and industries, these cross‑currents mean the promised relief for global shipping and energy markets is not guaranteed. Crews transiting Hormuz, Gulf energy terminals, and insurers had begun to price in a near‑term normalization based on Trump’s pledge that Hormuz would be “open to all” immediately after signing. The emergence of clashes in core Iranian cities and hardline claims that the text amounts to national subjugation raise the chance of domestic spoilers within Iran’s security bureaucracy delaying implementation, quietly resisting maritime de‑escalation orders, or provoking new incidents in the Gulf. On the Israeli side, leaders and border communities facing Hezbollah fire may see the accord as empowering Iran regionally, reinforcing arguments for a more aggressive stance that could spill into the maritime domain.
Militarily, the protests matter because they signal that key IRGC‑aligned voices may not be fully bought into the agreement’s constraints—especially any limits on attacks around Hormuz or on regional proxies. That increases the risk that rogue elements or semi‑deniable militias test US and Gulf red lines even after signatures, complicating naval deconfliction and risking incidents that could quickly re‑price oil. The Lebanese theater, with ongoing Hezbollah–IDF exchanges, provides an additional pressure valve through which Tehran or its allies could retaliate without formally breaching the memorandum.
For markets, the deal itself, if signed and implemented, would be bearish for crude and bullish for tanker throughput and risk assets tied to Gulf exports. But the emerging resistance introduces a high‑volatility scenario: any sign that Iran’s leadership buckles under hardline pressure, or that Israel moves to undermine the arrangement, will be read as a renewed threat to Hormuz flows. Traders should watch for Monday Asian open gaps in Brent and WTI, increased implied volatility in energy options, widening war‑risk premia in tanker insurance, and potential haven flows into gold and US Treasuries if implementation wobbles.
Over the next 24–48 hours, key indicators will be: (1) whether protests in Tehran, Qom and Mashhad are contained or met with lethal force; (2) any public statements from the IRGC leadership or Supreme National Security Council endorsing—or distancing from—the text; (3) concrete language in the signed memorandum on maritime rules of engagement around Hormuz; and (4) Israeli political or military signals hinting at counter‑measures. A credible sign that Iranian security organs accept the deal, or that Israel chooses to adapt rather than disrupt, would stabilize expectations. Conversely, more attacks on shipping, rocket fire via proxies, or visible splits in Tehran’s leadership would quickly re‑ignite fears about the reliability of any Hormuz reopening.
MARKET IMPACT ASSESSMENT: Rising risk that the promised reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could be delayed, weakened, or violently contested. Near term: upside pressure on Brent/WTI and tanker rates; options markets likely to price in higher event risk. Israeli signaling of strategic loss may also sustain demand for defense names. FX safe-haven flows (USD, CHF, JPY) could pick up if protests intensify or Israel hints at unilateral action.
Sources
- OSINT