# Autonomous Region of Kurdistan, Iraq — 48h threat outlook

*Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 9:35 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Risk Level**: CRITICAL
**Current → Predicted**: 9/10 → 9/10
**Published**: 2026-03-24T09:35:06.406Z (39d ago)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/threat-forecasts/20.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/predictive-forecasting

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Over 48 hours, sustained or escalatory strikes are likely as Iran and allied militias signal strength and retaliate against perceived U.S. and Israeli actions. The risk extends from frontline Peshmerga positions to urban centers and possibly energy logistics hubs.

## Drivers

- Iran’s interim wartime leadership pursuing aggressive deterrence and retaliation
- Use of Iraqi militia proxies to expand strike options with plausible deniability

## Indicators

- Public or leaked warnings from Iraqi or Kurdish authorities about expected further strikes
- Increased air defense activity near Erbil and other strategic Kurdish locations