# [24H] Israel Maintains High-Intensity Air Operations in Gaza and Southern Lebanon

*Issued Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 12:21 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-16T12:21:02.240Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-17T12:21:02.240Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 81% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Gaza Strip, Southern Lebanon, Northern Israel, Eastern Mediterranean airspace
**Affected Assets**: n/a
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9839.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Israel is likely to sustain a high tempo of airstrikes in Gaza targeting remaining Hamas command, rocket infrastructure, and tunnels, as well as continued precision strikes on Hezbollah assets in southern Lebanon. Following the killing of Hamas military chief Izz al-Din al-Haddad, Israel will seek to exploit temporary command dislocation with further decapitation strikes. Hezbollah will likely respond with limited rocket or drone fire calibrated to avoid full-scale war. No large-scale ground incursion into Lebanon is likely in this timeframe, but cross-border fire will remain elevated.

## Drivers

- Confirmed Israeli strikes killing Izz al-Din al-Haddad and stated focus on Hamas leadership
- Recent Israeli announcement of coordinated strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure across south Lebanon
- Oil markets already pricing in elevated regional risk, implying expectation of continued hostilities
- Emerging trend: managed but tense Hezbollah-Israel confrontation with rising drone use