# [24H] Ukraine Maintains Ceasefire on Frontlines but Continues Deep Drone Strikes Into Russia

*Issued Friday, May 15, 2026 at 4:51 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-15T16:51:27.541Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-16T16:51:27.541Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Russia (Ryazan, other refinery hubs), Eastern and Southern Ukraine, Black Sea region
**Affected Assets**: Russian refined product export capacity, European diesel and gasoline crack spreads, Ukrainian drone and missile stockpiles
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9711.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, large-scale ground assaults along the main Russia–Ukraine frontlines will remain relatively muted in line with the Trump-brokered ceasefire, but Ukraine will sustain or repeat long-range drone strikes against Russian energy and logistics targets. The Ryazan refinery complex and other high-value fuel infrastructure within drone range will stay at elevated risk of follow-on or supplementary attacks. Russia will respond with air defense and potentially limited missile or drone salvos against Ukrainian infrastructure while publicly denouncing Ukrainian 'violations' without fully abandoning the ceasefire. This preserves a paradoxical environment of formal truce with ongoing deep economic warfare.

## Drivers

- Recent confirmed Ukrainian deep-strike on Ryazan refinery despite ceasefire
- Ongoing mutual POW swaps indicating both sides still value the truce framework
- Emerging trend of 'mutual deep-strike escalation against energy nodes'
- Russia’s continued assaults in Charivne show local offensive efforts but not general mobilization