# [24H] Continuation of Ukrainian Deep-Strike Campaign Against Russian Energy and Military Infrastructure

*Issued Friday, May 15, 2026 at 1:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-15T13:09:04.068Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-16T13:09:04.068Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ryazan Oblast, Russia, Krasnodar Krai, Russia, Dagestan, Russia, Occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, Eastern and Southern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian fuel depots, Rail and logistics hubs, Airbases and naval facilities, European natural gas and power sentiment
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9680.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to conduct follow-on drone and missile strikes against Russian energy and military targets, though probably at a lower tempo than the Ryazan–Yeysk salvo. Priority targets will include fuel depots, rail logistics nodes supporting the front, and airbases in southern Russia and occupied territories. Ukraine will seek to exploit Russian air-defense saturation and publicize new hits to reinforce the narrative of escalating reach. Russia may respond with additional localized air-defense deployments but will need more time to adapt its posture.

## Drivers

- Recent large-scale Ukrainian strikes on Ryazan refinery, Yeysk airbase, Kaspiysk naval assets, and multiple depots in Luhansk/Donetsk
- Emerging trend of mutual deep-strike escalation on energy and infrastructure
- Evidence of Ukrainian drone-missile ecosystem expansion and European support
- Russia’s ongoing massive barrage on Ukraine providing political cover for Ukrainian escalation