# [7D] Ukraine intensifies deep-strike campaign against Russian refinery and fuel-logistics network

*Issued Friday, May 15, 2026 at 2:55 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-15T02:55:36.362Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-22T02:55:36.362Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Southern Russia, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refinery throughput, Domestic Russian fuel prices, Rail and pipeline logistics to front-line forces
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9632.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within a week, Ukraine is likely to broaden its deep-strike campaign beyond Ryazan to include additional refineries, fuel depots, and rail junctions feeding the Russian military, particularly in western and southern Russia. These attacks will likely be carried out by long-range drones and possibly modified missiles, seeking to impose cumulative constraints on Russian fuel availability and shift the locus of the war into Russia’s rear. Russia will harden defenses around key energy sites, possibly reassigning air-defense assets from the front lines, which could subtly alter battlefield dynamics.

## Drivers

- Current large, sustained drone attack on Ryazan refinery
- Pattern of Ukrainian strikes in Bryansk, Taganrog, and Yeysk
- Ukraine’s stated intent to respond to Russian attacks on Kyiv
- Trend toward drone-dominated offense–defense spiral in the war