# [24H] Ukrainian drone campaign maintains pressure on Ryazan refinery with follow-on or loitering munitions

*Issued Friday, May 15, 2026 at 2:55 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-15T02:55:36.362Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-16T02:55:36.362Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ryazan Oblast, Central Russia, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude differential, European diesel cracks, ICE Gasoil futures, Russian refinery infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9621.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to sustain pressure on the Ryazan refinery complex either through additional drone sorties, loitering munitions already in the area, or follow-on strikes against auxiliary infrastructure (storage tanks, power supply, loading facilities). Russia will respond by surging local air defense coverage and potentially scrambling fighters over Ryazan and other high-value refineries. The primary goal for Kyiv will be to ensure that damage meaningfully reduces short-term throughput and forces Russia to divert resources from the front. Visible fires and secondary explosions will likely continue for many hours as emergency services struggle to contain blazes.

## Drivers

- Ongoing reports of large Ukrainian drone attack with Ryazan refinery still burning heavily
- Pattern of sustained Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure
- Zelensky ordering military response after deadly strike on Kyiv
- Russian air defense previously demonstrated difficulty in fully intercepting massed drones