# [24H] Brent crude remains elevated with intraday volatility on Hormuz control and OPEC+ signaling

*Issued Thursday, May 14, 2026 at 3:01 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-14T15:01:11.219Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-15T15:01:11.219Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Gulf region, Major importing economies (EU, China, India)
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, Tanker equities, Oilfield services stocks
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9560.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude prices are likely to trade with elevated intraday volatility but remain within an upper range, as markets weigh IRGC-controlled but partially normalized Hormuz flows against US naval blockade tightening and OPEC+ plans to raise quotas. Price action will likely reflect a persistent geopolitical risk premium rather than a sharp break-out, as 30 escorted ships demonstrate that flows continue under Iranian leverage. Skepticism over OPEC+’s ability to fully deliver increased supply amid Gulf disruptions will limit downside. A sudden de-escalation announcement between the US and Iran could briefly compress the premium but is unlikely in this window.

## Drivers

- Reports of 30 ships transiting Hormuz under IRGC supervision
- US CENTCOM disclosure of 70 commercial vessels diverted and 4 disabled under blockade
- OPEC+ signaling production quota increases through September despite blockade risks
- Saudi proposal of a non-aggression pact with Iran marginally improving medium-term outlook