# [24H] Russian Air Campaign on Ukraine Continues at Reduced but Elevated Tempo

*Issued Thursday, May 14, 2026 at 10:25 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-14T10:25:09.067Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-15T10:25:09.067Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Kyiv, Western Ukraine, Central Ukraine, Donetsk region, Broader EUCOM AOR
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian power grid, Rail logistics hubs, Air defense systems, Urban residential infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9525.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to continue air and missile strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, but at a substantially lower volume than the record 1,300–1,500 drones and 50+ missiles used in the last 24 hours. The focus will remain on key logistics nodes, energy assets, and security service facilities, particularly in Kyiv and western rail hubs. This pattern aims to maintain psychological and logistical pressure while allowing Russian strike assets to reconstitute. Ukraine’s air defenses will stay strained but will intercept the majority of incoming munitions, limiting additional mass-casualty events.

## Drivers

- Recent record-scale Russian strike package across Ukraine
- Emerging trend of saturation raids to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses
- Targeting patterns against SBU buildings, rail hubs, and energy infrastructure
- Russian strategic bombers reported preparing further strikes from Olenya and Ukrainka airbases