# [30D] Entrenchment of Long-Range Deep Strike Campaigns Between Russia and Ukraine

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 9:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T21:31:26.001Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-12T21:31:26.001Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Western and southern Russia, Black Sea region
**Affected Assets**: Energy infrastructure (refineries, terminals, power plants), Rail and logistics networks, Air defense stockpiles on both sides
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9453.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 30 days, both Russia and Ukraine are likely to normalize reciprocal, high-tempo deep strike campaigns using drones and missiles against each other’s critical infrastructure, particularly energy and logistics nodes. Ukraine will continue to prioritize Russian refining and export hubs like Taman, while Russia escalates attacks on Ukrainian rail hubs, power grids, and western logistics corridors. The result will be a durable long-war pattern where both sides aim to degrade industrial capacity and civilian resilience rather than seeking rapid battlefield breakthroughs.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of mutual deep-strike drone campaigns and erosion of Russian oil capacity
- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Tamanneftegaz and repeated Russian mass UAV attacks on western Ukraine
- Russia’s shift to mass UAV saturation of logistics nodes
- Lack of credible near-term diplomatic pathway to end the conflict