# [24H] Limited Ukrainian Follow-On Strikes Against Russian Energy or Logistics Targets

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 9:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T21:31:26.001Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-14T21:31:26.001Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Krasnodar Krai, Russia, Rostov region, Russia, Bryansk region, Russia, Black Sea littoral
**Affected Assets**: Russian oil export and storage facilities, Rail and fuel logistics nodes, Russian regional air defense systems
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9432.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to attempt at least limited additional deep-strike operations using drones or missiles against Russian energy, logistics, or military infrastructure, though on a smaller scale than the Taman terminal strike. Targets may include refineries, fuel depots, or logistics hubs in Krasnodar, Rostov, or Bryansk regions to maintain pressure on Russian export capacity and war logistics. Weather, asset availability, and air defense saturation will constrain the number and effectiveness of such attacks. Russian air defenses will remain on high alert around Black Sea export and logistics infrastructure.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strike damaging Tamanneftegaz Black Sea oil terminal
- Emerging trend of systematic Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian oil refining and export capacity
- Mutual deep-strike drone campaigns entrenching a long-war logic
- Russian reports of Bryansk utilities under shelling pressure