# [7D] Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Reprice Toward Later and Shallower Easing, Pressuring Risk Assets

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 3:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T15:31:24.473Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-20T15:31:24.473Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 77% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: United States, Global financial markets, Emerging markets reliant on external financing
**Affected Assets**: US Treasuries (2–10 year maturities), S&P 500 and NASDAQ, DXY and EM FX basket, High-yield and EM sovereign credit spreads
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9414.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, US rates markets are likely to sharply reduce expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, shifting implied timing later into the year and lowering total cuts priced, following the upside PPI surprise and ongoing energy price pressures. Higher real yields and a stronger dollar will weigh on global risk assets, particularly high-duration equities and EM currencies. Credit spreads may begin to widen modestly as investors reassess growth-vs-inflation tradeoffs. However, strong energy sector performance will partially offset index-level equity weakness.

## Drivers

- US April PPI and core PPI far exceeding expectations, described as a shock
- Warnings that this materially raises odds of later, slower Fed easing
- Energy price support from OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical risk adding to inflation concerns