# [7D] Sustained Elevated Oil Prices with Increased Backwardation Due to Combined OPEC+, Iran, and Russia Factors

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 3:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T15:31:24.473Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-20T15:31:24.473Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Gulf region, Europe, Black Sea and Russia, Latin American fuel-importing countries
**Affected Assets**: Brent and WTI futures and spreads, Refined product cracks, Energy equities, Emerging market sovereign bonds (oil importers)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9413.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Across the next 7 days, Brent and WTI prices are likely to consolidate at elevated levels with persistent or deepening backwardation as markets digest Saudi output at 1990 lows, OPEC+ underproduction, and continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and export terminals. Absent a major Hormuz incident, flat price gains are likely capped, but prompt spreads will reflect tightness in physical supply and refined products. The perception of higher structural risk will embed a premium that outlasts immediate headlines. Consumer price pressures will begin to re-enter policy debates, especially in Europe and emerging markets.

## Drivers

- OPEC+ producing 1.74 mb/d below target with trimmed demand outlook
- FLASH alert on Saudi crude output at lowest since 1990
- Repeated Ukrainian strikes on Taman and other Russian energy facilities, and Perm refinery outage
- Iranian missile sites restoration raising Hormuz risk premium