# [7D] Iran Uses Missile Site Restoration to Stage Live-Fire Exercises and Heightened Naval Patrols Near Hormuz

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 3:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T15:31:24.473Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-20T15:31:24.473Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 72% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Iranian southern coastline, UAE and Oman waters, Northern Arabian Sea
**Affected Assets**: Oil and LNG tankers through Hormuz, Regional naval deployments (US, UK, France, GCC), Maritime insurance and freight rates
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9409.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 7 days, Iran is likely to conduct live-fire missile or rocket artillery exercises from coastal areas proximate to the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with intensified IRGC naval patrols, to signal its ability to interdict shipping without actually closing the strait. Short-range ballistic or cruise missile tests into designated impact areas will serve as coercive messaging toward the US and Gulf states. The activity will remain carefully bounded to avoid direct hits on foreign vessels, but miscalculation risk will increase, particularly if commercial ships alter course abruptly. US and allied navies will raise alert levels and possibly escort a larger share of tankers.

## Drivers

- US intel that Iran has regained access to 30 of 33 missile sites with 70% stockpile intact
- Emerging trend of Iran–Gulf confrontation pivoting to contested control of Hormuz
- CENTCOM noting elevated threat and UAE hardening anti-drone defenses
- Iran being weeks from weapons-grade uranium, raising incentives for coercive signaling