# [24H] Sharp Intraday Spike in Brent and WTI on Combined Iran–Hormuz Risk and Russian Energy Strikes

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 3:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T15:31:24.473Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-14T15:31:24.473Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 85% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Gulf region, Black Sea energy export routes, US energy sector
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Gasoline (RBOB futures), Diesel/gasoil cracks, Energy equities, Oil tankers and shipping insurance
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9403.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent and WTI crude benchmarks are likely to trade sharply higher intraday, with Brent plausibly adding 3–7% at peak, as markets price in elevated Hormuz missile risk, Saudi output at 1990 lows, and accumulating Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. The record US SPR draw and large crude and gasoline inventory declines will add to concerns over near-term supply tightness, particularly in products. The price move may partially retrace by session end as no actual Hormuz disruption is observed, but the structural risk premium will remain higher than last week. Backwardation in near-dated spreads will likely steepen more than the flat price rises.

## Drivers

- Saudi crude output at lowest since 1990
- OPEC+ production 1.74 mb/d below target
- Iran regaining access to missile sites around Hormuz and nearing weapons-grade uranium
- Ukrainian drone strikes on Taman terminal and Perm refinery outage
- Record US SPR draw and large crude/gasoline stock declines