# [24H] Iran Refrains From Immediate Kinetic Action in Strait of Hormuz but Increases Maritime Signaling

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 3:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T15:31:24.473Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-14T15:31:24.473Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, Oman Gulf, Iranian coastal provinces, UAE and Oman coastal waters
**Affected Assets**: Commercial oil and LNG tankers transiting Hormuz, Regional naval patrols (US, GCC, Iran), Maritime insurance premia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9400.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Despite regaining missile site access, Iran is unlikely to launch overt missile strikes or attempt a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the next 24 hours, instead using patrols, radar illumination, and harassment of commercial shipping as signaling tools. Having restored access to 30 of 33 missile sites, Tehran will opt to leverage the threat of escalation during the coercive bargaining phase rather than expend capabilities prematurely. Expect more IRGC Navy and fast-boat presence and possible boarding or ‘inspection’ of regionally flagged vessels, especially linked to Gulf rivals. Any kinetic incident would likely be tightly calibrated and deniable.

## Drivers

- US intel that Iran retains 70% of pre-war missile stockpile and restored Hormuz missile sites
- Emerging trend describing Iran conflict entering coercive bargaining phase centered on Hormuz
- CENTCOM assessment of elevated but not critical threat and UAE hardening defenses