# [7D] Iran Maintains Closure of Strait of Hormuz With Limited Harassing Actions Rather Than Full Blockade Attacks

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 9:30 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T09:30:35.480Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-20T09:30:35.480Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Gulf littoral states
**Affected Assets**: Crude and LNG shipping through Hormuz, Regional naval fleets, Insurance and reinsurance for Gulf shipping
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9381.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the coming week, Iran is likely to sustain the functional closure and high-risk environment in the Strait of Hormuz primarily through persistent missile and naval posturing, sporadic drone overflights, and selective inspections or detentions rather than frequent kinetic attacks on shipping. Tehran’s restored missile bases provide credible denial capability, but direct attacks on tankers would risk uncontrollable escalation with the U.S. and Gulf states. This approach allows Iran to preserve leverage during UN discussions spearheaded by France. A more escalatory alternative would involve one or two targeted strikes on non-Western-flagged shipping to signal resolve while testing international red lines.

## Drivers

- Reports of Iran’s missile base restoration along Hormuz
- Emerging trend of coercive bargaining over strait control
- Macron’s UN initiative creating incentives for Iran to use calibrated pressure
- Recent Saudi and UAE strikes on Iran elevating Tehran’s sense of threat