# [24H] Intraday Upside Pressure on Brent and WTI From Hormuz Missile Restoration and Gulf Kinetic Revelations

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 9:30 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T09:30:35.480Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-14T09:30:35.480Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil markets, Gulf region, Major importing economies (EU, China, India, Japan)
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, Tanker freight rates in the Gulf
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9375.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next trading day, Brent and WTI prices are likely to experience intraday spikes of 2–5% relative to the prior close, driven by confirmation of Iran’s restored missile capacity around Hormuz and public revelations of Saudi and UAE strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Traders will reprice the probability of prolonged closure or intermittent disruption at the strait despite French diplomatic efforts. Volatility will be high, with partial pullbacks possible if Macron’s UN initiative appears credible. A contrarian outcome would see only marginal movement if markets had already fully priced in these risks after earlier closure announcements.

## Drivers

- Reports that Iran has restored access to 30 of 33 Hormuz missile bases
- Revelations of Saudi and UAE kinetic actions on Iranian soil and infrastructure
- Warnings that Hormuz remains closed with elevated geopolitical risk premium
- Historical sensitivity of crude benchmarks to Hormuz disruption headlines