# [24H] France Tables Draft UN Framework for Neutral Security Regime in Strait of Hormuz

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 9:30 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T09:30:35.480Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-14T09:30:35.480Z (22h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: UN Headquarters (New York), Strait of Hormuz, EU capitals, Gulf capitals
**Affected Assets**: Global shipping insurance frameworks, Diplomatic leverage of P5 members, Iran’s negotiation posture
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9373.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within 24 hours, France is likely to circulate or formally signal a draft UN Security Council proposal outlining a neutral maritime security arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz. Paris will aim to position the framework as non-aligned and primarily focused on safe navigation, trying to attract EU, Asian, and some Gulf support while not overtly isolating Iran. Public backing from at least one major EU state and quiet consultations with China are probable. Pushback from Iran and hardliners in the US and Gulf may limit immediate traction, but it will set the diplomatic baseline.

## Drivers

- Macron’s explicit statement that unconditional reopening of Hormuz is an 'absolute priority'
- Emerging trend of strategic contest over control and governance of the Strait
- Need among importing states for a politically acceptable off-ramp
- Past French role in multilateral maritime security initiatives