# [24H] Ecuador’s Fuel Shortages Trigger Immediate Logistics Disruptions and Heightened Strike Risk

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 3:30 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T03:30:55.707Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-14T03:30:55.707Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ecuador, Andean region, Pacific LatAm crude market
**Affected Assets**: Ecuadorian crude exports (Oriente, Napo), Ecuador sovereign bonds, Regional refined products supply chains
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9342.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Ecuador’s ongoing fuel shortages will cause further queues, localized rationing, and delays in road transport, with early work stoppages or wildcat protests likely in key cities. The national energy workers’ union’s warnings about underinvestment and constrained production increase the probability of organized labor actions. While no immediate large-scale export cutoff is expected, marginal reductions in crude and refined product shipments could begin. The central government will resist altering curfew or subsidy regimes in the very short term, but political pressure will spike.

## Drivers

- Warnings from Ecuador’s national energy workers about fuel shortages and underinvestment
- Reports of long queues and rising prices in multiple cities
- Conaie calls for protests over fuel prices
- Interior Ministry statement that curfew remains unchanged