# [24H] US and China Quietly Coordinate Naval Signaling Against Iranian Transit Tolls in Hormuz

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 3:30 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T03:30:55.707Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-14T03:30:55.707Z (21h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, South and East Asia (energy-importing states)
**Affected Assets**: Oil shipping lanes, Energy insurance and reinsurance markets, US and Chinese naval forces in the region
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9338.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, the US and China are likely to reinforce their stated opposition to transit tolls in the Strait of Hormuz through public statements and subtle naval signaling, but will stop short of joint patrols. This may include overlapping freedom-of-navigation rhetoric, calls at the UN for adherence to the 112-state navigation resolution, and possibly parallel deployments or transits by US and PLA Navy vessels. Both sides see alignment on navigation rules as serving core energy security interests without requiring a formal security partnership. Iran will frame such moves as external interference but avoid immediate confrontation.

## Drivers

- Warning that US and China have agreed not to allow transit tolls in Hormuz
- UN resolution with 112 states backing freedom of navigation in the strait
- Iran’s emerging controlled-access, monetization strategy for Hormuz