# [24H] Iran Maintains High Readiness but Avoids Immediate Direct Kinetic Clash with US Forces

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 3:30 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T03:30:55.707Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-14T03:30:55.707Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Gulf Cooperation Council states, US CENTCOM AOR
**Affected Assets**: US and allied bases in the Gulf, Commercial shipping in and near Hormuz, Regional airspace traffic
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9337.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Despite having restored access to roughly 90% of its missile sites and 70%+ of its arsenal, Iran is unlikely to initiate a large-scale direct strike on US bases or Gulf infrastructure in the next 24 hours. Tehran is currently leveraging its position via controlled Hormuz access deals with Iraq and Pakistan, suggesting a preference for coercive economic pressure over immediate kinetic escalation. However, localized proxy or deniable actions (e.g., foiled IRGC-type operations against Gulf islands or shipping reconnaissance) may continue. US posture will remain elevated, with ISR and naval deployments focused on early warning around Hormuz.

## Drivers

- US intel that Iran’s missile sites are roughly 90% operational
- Shift from outright blockade to monetized, controlled Hormuz access backed by missile capability
- Foiled IRGC attack on Bubiyan Island indicating continued covert activity
- US–China joint statement against transit tolls raising diplomatic costs of overt escalation