# [30D] Russia consolidates a grinding offensive around Pokrovsk and other Donetsk sectors while Ukraine expands deep drone campaign on Russian infrastructure

*Issued Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 3:35 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-12T15:35:05.195Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-11T15:35:05.195Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Donetsk Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian interior regions such as Orenburg and Perm
**Affected Assets**: Frontline ground forces and armor, Russian oil refineries and pipelines, Ukrainian air defense networks, Civilian infrastructure near frontline areas
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9298.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 30 days, Russia is likely to intensify attritional offensives along the Pokrovsk front and adjacent Donetsk sectors, employing heavy glide bombs, artillery, and incremental ground assaults to wear down Ukrainian defenses. Simultaneously, Ukraine will expand its long-range drone and missile campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, logistics hubs, and air defense assets in regions such as Orenburg and Perm. The net effect will be high casualties and material losses on both sides without decisive territorial breakthroughs. The continued pressure will strain Ukraine’s air defenses and Russia’s internal logistics and political narrative.

## Drivers

- Recent positional battles on the Pokrovsk front and Russian FAB-3000 deployments
- Ukrainian strikes against depots, UAV control centers, and Orenburg/Perm infrastructure
- Theater trend of post-ceasefire Russian escalation and Ukrainian counter-strike adaptation