# [7D] Urban insecurity and protest-driven violence rise in Ecuador as fuel crisis persists

*Issued Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 3:35 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-12T15:35:05.195Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-19T15:35:05.195Z (7d from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Guayas Province, El Oro Province, Quito and other major cities
**Affected Assets**: Urban transport networks, Food distribution and markets, Police and military internal security units
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9297.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, Ecuador is likely to see escalating protests, roadblocks, and opportunistic criminal violence in response to sustained fuel shortages and higher transport and food costs. Insecurity will particularly affect coastal provinces already impacted by organized crime, leading to more incidents like targeted killings and extortion. Humanitarian concerns will center on access to food, medical care, and safe transport for vulnerable populations. The government may declare localized states of emergency, which can further militarize public order and increase human rights risks.

## Drivers

- Existing reports of hitman killings and judge assassination amid governance crisis in Ecuador
- Worsening fuel shortages tied to Esmeraldas refinery problems
- SOUTHCOM noting domestic fuel and governance crises and protests in South America