# [7D] Latin American refined products markets tighten as Ecuador and Russian disruptions redirect flows

*Issued Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 3:35 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-12T15:35:05.195Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-19T15:35:05.195Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Broader Latin America, US Gulf Coast
**Affected Assets**: Regional gasoline and diesel benchmarks, US Gulf Coast refining margins, Product tanker rates in Atlantic and Pacific basins
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9295.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 7 days, Latin American markets will feel tighter supply of gasoline and diesel as Ecuador sharply increases imports to compensate for Esmeraldas, and Russian refined product exports remain intermittently disrupted by refinery attacks. Regional importers such as Peru and Chile may face higher spot prices and competition for cargoes, with some cargoes rerouted from the Atlantic basin. US Gulf Coast refiners will benefit from higher margins and export opportunities. Domestic political pressure in importing states will rise if pump prices spike.

## Drivers

- Evidence of serious Esmeraldas refinery distress and domestic shortages in Ecuador
- Repeated fires at Russia’s Perm refinery after Ukrainian drone strikes
- Pre-existing tightness in global refined product markets due to energy shock