# [24H] Ecuador experiences acute domestic fuel rationing and price spikes, forcing emergency import tenders

*Issued Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 3:35 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-12T15:35:05.195Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-13T15:35:05.195Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ecuador, West Coast South America, Caribbean fuels market
**Affected Assets**: Regional gasoline and diesel spot markets, Ecuadorian sovereign and quasi-sovereign energy entities, Local transport and logistics sectors
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9286.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the coming 24 hours, Ecuador’s government and state oil company are likely to announce or quietly implement fuel rationing measures and fast-track import tenders for gasoline and diesel. Retail shortages will intensify in major cities, prompting localized protests and further eroding public trust in the administration. Spot import premiums in the Pacific and Caribbean products markets will widen modestly as traders price in Ecuador’s sudden demand. The situation will contribute marginally to regional fuels tightness but have outsized domestic political repercussions.

## Drivers

- Warnings that fuel shortages are deepening and Esmeraldas refinery is nearing collapse after a fire
- SOUTHCOM assessment noting domestic fuel and governance crises in Ecuador
- Historical pattern of Latin American fuel crises leading to emergency imports and rationing