# [24H] Russia ramps up long-range strikes in Ukraine following ceasefire collapse, focusing on energy and command targets

*Issued Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 3:35 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-12T15:35:05.195Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-13T15:35:05.195Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Crimea, Russian border regions such as Orenburg
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian power and fuel infrastructure, Military command posts and logistics hubs, Russian oil logistics and refineries, Air defense systems on both sides
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9281.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Russia is likely to conduct an elevated tempo of missile and glide-bomb strikes against Ukrainian logistics, energy infrastructure, and command nodes, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The FAB-3000 strike in Mezhova and recent targeting of depots and command posts indicate an emphasis on deep attrition and disruption of Ukrainian operational planning after the ceasefire breakdown. Ukraine will continue counter-strikes with drones and missiles on Russian rear and oil infrastructure, but Russian attacks on Ukrainian territory will outpace Ukrainian cross-border actions in this period. Civilian-adjacent infrastructure near military targets remains at heightened risk.

## Drivers

- Warning that Ukraine ceasefire has collapsed and full-scale war has resumed
- Recent Russian FAB-3000 strike in Mezhova and positional battles on Pokrovsk front
- Ukrainian strikes on command posts, depots, and UAV control centers in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia
- Theater assessment noting post-ceasefire Russian escalation and attritional air–land campaign