# [24H] Brent Crude Holds Above $100 with Intraday Spikes on Hormuz and Lebanon Headlines

*Issued Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 10:23 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-12T10:23:48.676Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-13T10:23:48.676Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global, Gulf region, Europe, Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Tanker equities, Gulf sovereign bonds, Energy-sector equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9258.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude prices are likely to remain at or above $100 per barrel, with intraday spikes of 2–4% on any reports suggesting further Iran–Israel escalation or Hormuz disruption. Market participants will price in persistent risk to roughly 20% of global crude flows due to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure and Israeli–Iranian proxy clashes in Lebanon and the Gulf. While no major new kinetic attack on shipping is expected in this window, even rhetorical escalations from Tehran or Washington will sustain a high risk premium. Volatility in energy equities and tanker stocks will track these shifts.

## Drivers

- Daily brief noting oil near or above $100/bbl driven by Hormuz closure
- Active U.S.–Iran war stalemate and Trump considering strikes on Iran
- Israel–Hezbollah–Iran escalatory dynamics and Iron Dome deployment to UAE
- Market tendency to overprice tail risks in chokepoint crises