# [24H] Russia Maintains High-Tempo Drone and Glide-Bomb Strikes Across Ukraine

*Issued Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 10:23 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-12T10:23:48.676Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-13T10:23:48.676Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Eastern and Southern Ukraine, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian power grid, Rail logistics, Local fuel depots, European power and gas risk premia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9253.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Russian forces are likely to sustain high-tempo Shahed/Geran drone and KAB glide-bomb strikes against Ukrainian energy, rail, and urban infrastructure following the post-ceasefire barrage. Targeting will prioritize Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and frontline logistics nodes near Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka to consolidate recent advances. Ukraine will intercept most incoming systems but will be unable to prevent additional localized damage and outages. A minority of strikes will cause visible civilian infrastructure damage, amplifying psychological pressure and testing air-defense stockpiles.

## Drivers

- Documented 200+ drone and 80 bomb strikes immediately after ceasefire lapse
- Confirmed hits on Samar oil depot, rail near Samar, and Pokrov solar substation
- Trend of Russian focus on energy and rail infrastructure in recent weeks
- Theater assessment noting post-ceasefire escalation of air-land campaign